By Svante E. Cornell and M.K. Kaya (vol. 2, no. 16 of the Turkey Analyst)

In its laudable attempts to reduce tensions with its neighbors and to gain a greater influence in the South Caucasus, the AKP government has made itself dependent on forces that it cannot control. Unless Armenia and Azerbaijan strike a deal rapidly, Turkey will inevitably be forced to choose between reneging on its commitment to normalize relations with Armenia or risk a breakdown in its relations with Azerbaijan. In either situation, Moscow will be the geopolitical winner. Western, in particular American, activity to support an agreement on principle between Armenia and Azerbaijan is urgently called for.

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By M.K. Kaya and Svante E. Cornell (vol. 2, no. 10 of the Turkey Analyst) 

The Nabucco pipeline is key to Europe’s diversification of natural gas supply, but faces numerous problems. Turkey has been a problem country for Nabucco given the low level of coordination of Turkish policy on the issue and Ankara’s exaggerated demands. Nevertheless, Ankara now appears to have adopted a more realistic policy. However, Ankara’s stance on Nabucco and its rapprochement with Armenia did considerable damage to the project by putting into question Azerbaijan’s participation. Indeed, while Turkey appears less of a problem than a few months ago, the ball is now in Baku.

Published in Articles

By Svante E. Cornell (vol. 2, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)

The past several weeks have seen the level of diplomatic rumoring on a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement reach new heights. The Turkish government embarked on this endeavor seriously last Summer, a move that could redraw the geopolitics of the Caucasus in unpredictable ways, depending on how it is undertaken. While the initiative had much to do with Turkish-US relations, the Obama visit paradoxically coincided with Ankara being forced to hit the brakes on the issue, at least temporarily. It has once again been made clear that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict remains the major security challenge in the region, and that it needs to be tackled head on.

Published in Articles

By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 10 of the Turkey Analyst)

The first trilateral summit of the presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia was held in early May, representing a historic although not widely heralded advance in strategic cooperation.  Ostensibly devoted to enhancing the three nations’ economic cooperation, the summit was conducted against the backdrop of the Russia's March 2014 annexation of the Crimea and the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine. The public emphasis placed on the Baku-Tblisi-Kars rail line by Turkish President Abdullah Gül, along with his Azerbaijani and Georgian counterparts, signaled that the three principals acknowledge a mutual strategic imperative for greater security cooperation.

Turkey Georgia Azerbaijan 

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Joint Center Publications

Op-ed Halil Karaveli "The Rise and Rise of the Turkish Right", The New York Times, April 8, 2019

Analysis Halil Karaveli "The Myth of Erdogan's Power"Foreign Policy, August 29, 2018

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, A Road to Understanding in Syria? The U.S. and TurkeyThe American Interest, June 2018

Op-ed Halil Karaveli "Erdogan Wins Reelection"Foreign Affairs, June 25, 2018

Article Halil Karaveli "Will the Kurdish Question Secure Erdogan's Re-election?", Turkey Analyst, June 18, 2018

Research Article Svante E. Cornell "Erbakan, Kisakürek, and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey", Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018

Analysis Svante E. Cornell "The U.S. and Turkey: Past the Point of No Return?"The American Interest, February 1, 2018

Op-ed Svante E. Cornell "Erdogan's Turkey: the Role of a Little Known Islamic Poet", Breaking Defense, January 2, 2018

Research Article Halil Karaveli "Turkey's Authoritarian Legacy"Cairo Review of Global Affairs, January 2, 2018

 

The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It includes topical analysis, as well as a summary of the Turkish media debate.

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