By Natalia Konarzewska 

June 1, 2021

Turkey, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan envision closer, trilateral economic cooperation. The recent, landmark agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on the development of the Kepez/Serdar offshore field, renamed ''Dostluk'' or ''Dostlug” (“Friendship”), which ends a decades-long conflict between the two countries, promises to boost pan-Turkic energy cooperation. Also, Turkey’s new connectivity with Azerbaijan and the Caspian Basin after the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement has the potential to reinvigorate Ankara's economic relations with the Turkic nations of Central Asia. Even though the current feasibility of new energy infrastructure projects is uncertain, the importance of the deepening relationship of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan is above all geopolitical, and its implications are not lost on Russia and Iran, which have already been alarmed. Ankara's pan-Turkic successes in the Caspian Basin and in Central Asia presage an intensified geopolitical competition in these regions.

By Michaël Tanchum

January  19, 2021

Turkey's decision to provide an unprecedented level of military assistance to Azerbaijan empowered Baku to achieve a resounding victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, changing the geopolitical rules of the game in the South Caucasus. Moreover, the war has enhanced Ankara's ability to project its influence in Central Asia. Benefiting from its inclusion in the Chinese-led BRI network of connectivity across Central Asia, Turkey may have outfoxed China in Azerbaijan to become a rising Eurasian power. Although Russia now has to tolerate the presence of Turkish troops on Azerbaijani soil, China may be the big strategic loser in the war's outcome.

By Emil Avdaliani

October 5, 2020

Turkey increasingly views Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan as parts of an arc that could help it balance Russia’s growing military presence in the Black Sea and in the South Caucasus. With this objective in mind, Ankara is stepping up its military cooperation not only with Baku, but also with Tbilisi and Kyiv. Turkey is signaling that it intends to play a far more active role in the Black Sea-Caucasus region in order to contain Russia’s influence. This regional strategy has wider implications as it demonstrates that Turkey, contrary to what has become a common perception in the West, is not moving closer toward Russia and that in fact Turkish and the Western geopolitical interests largely converge, with Turkey supporting Georgia’s NATO ambitions.

By Turan Suleymanov and Bahruz Babayev

September 25, 2020

Turkey’s active, military and diplomatic involvement in the recent Azerbaijan-Armenia border clashes has sent a strong signal to both Armenia and Russia that Turkey will not remain passive and quietly acquiesce to any attempt to destabilize Azerbaijan. At stake is not only Turkey’s standing in Azerbaijan, arguably its closest international partner, but equally its energy safety and its wider, Central Asian political and economic ambitions. The Turkish intervention in defense of Azerbaijan is an unmistakable political warning that multiple actors will be involved in a possible escalation by Armenia of its conflict with Azerbaijan. In this sense, it serves as a guarantee for long-term stability and security in the south Caucasus. Reasonably, Armenia will have been permanently discouraged from seeking any further confrontation with Azerbaijan.

By Ipek Velioglu

January 15th, 2016, The Turkey Analyst

Turkey’s decision to shoot down a Russian jet in the Syrian border led to a crisis between the two countries. Although Russia and Turkey always had divergent political agendas, they maintained a good relationship. In the last decade, thanks to the personal relationship of the leaders, Russia and Turkey created a strong economic partnership, especially in the energy field, and kept it separately from the political sphere. But this time is different: the deterioration in political relations will have a strong impact on energy cooperation. Russia slammed economic sanctions on Turkey and big investment projects are at risk. Given its dependency on Russian natural gas, Turkey is concerned about its energy security, making the quest for alternative suppliers and sources highly relevant.