COVID-19 and the Turkish Economy: Erdoğan Faces His Toughest Challenge
By Barış Soydan
May 11, 2020
Will the Turkish economy survive the Covid-19 pandemic? If the emergency measures remain in place for more than a few months – which they likely will, given that the pandemic is expected to last for at least a year, if not longer – what looms is a cumulative loss of economic output compared to which the 2001 financial crisis that blew up Turkish economy pales. A big slump, with bankruptcies, mass unemployment and government debt running at record highs loom on the horizon. The economic consequences of covid-19 are going to present Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with the toughest challenge that he has had to face during his seventeen years in power.
Turkey's Dysfunctional Presidential System
By Gareth Jenkins
May 5, 2020
The debacle of the abrupt imposition of a curfew on April 10, 2020 and the subsequent announcement and withdrawal of Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu’s resignation has provided further evidence of how dysfunctional Turkey’s executive presidential system – which was once touted by its supporters as the solution to the country’s problems – has become.
Will COVID-19 Restrain Erdoğan's Syria Ambitions?
By Aykan Erdemir and Luc Sasseville
April 27, 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambitions in Syria have resulted in a two-pronged intervention, as Ankara targets the Bashar al-Assad regime in the war-torn country’s northwest and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Council in the northeast. The coronavirus pandemic, along with Turkey’s economic crisis, jihadist attacks against Turkish forces in Idlib, and infighting among Turkish proxies will all pose obstacles to Erdoğan’s plans in Syria. It is, however, far from certain that these challenges will have a restraining effect on the foreign and security policy of the Turkish regime.
Turkey's In-between State of War and Peace with Russia
By Michaël Tanchum
March 25, 2020
On March 15, 2020, Turkey and Russia conducted their first joint patrol along the M-4 highway in Syria's Idlib province, implementing the terms a ceasefire accord that ended the direct military confrontation between Turkey and Russia. Ankara will prioritize avoiding further confrontation and cooperate with Moscow in order to consolidate Turkey's position in northern Syria. The degree to which Moscow reciprocates Turkey's gestures in Idlib will be the measure of how much Moscow is able and willing to accommodate Turkey's interests in northern Syria.
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