By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 14 of the Turkey Analyst)

President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured his margin of victory with a last minute appeal to Turkish nationalist voters, having failed to expand his support among Kurds despite significant overtures on Kurdish issues.  President-elect Erdoğan faces an ineluctable choice between expanding his “Kurdish Opening,” moving Turkey closer to becoming a binational state, and assuaging right-wing Turkish nationalism. Neither choice bodes well for a Justice and Development Party (AKP) majority in Turkey’s 2015 parliamentary elections. The AKP will be hard put to manage rising expectations among Turkey's Kurds while retaining Turkish nationalist support. 

By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 13 of the Turkey Analyst)

Turkey’s partnership with Azerbaijan in constructing the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline as well as Azerbaijan’s construction of a new oil refinery and container port on Turkey’s Aegean Coast is raising the level of Turkey’s economic partnership with Azerbaijan in the energy and transportation sectors to an unprecedented strategic level.  This cooperation advanced further with new investment agreements concluded in late May and early June 2014.  The deepening of the Turkey-Azerbaijan partnership is creating the framework for the emergence of wider Caspian-Anatolian regional cooperation.

By Richard Weitz (vol. 7, no. 13 of the Turkey Analyst)

The Turkish government has recently been seeking to improve its ties with Iran. Even when bilateral relations were most tense, as in 2012 and 2013, Turkey and Iran declined to break relations comprehensively. They continued to pursue robust economic exchanges while compartmentalizing their regional security differences. The past year has seen decreasing differences between Ankara and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program. The declining prospects of Ankara’s anti-Iranian allies in Syria and the advent of an unexpectedly virulent militant Sunni insurgency in Iraq also contribute to creating a new regional dynamic. The Turkish-Iranian relationship is multi-faceted and although recent developments may have brought the two countries closer again, their relation is set to remain beset by complications and contradictions.