By Kemal Kaya (vol. 7, no. 6 of the Turkey Analyst)

Turkey’s dependence on Russia in terms of its energy needs, as well as the other, important economic ties impede Turkey from rallying to a Western policy of isolation and stronger economic sanctions toward Russia. Although Turkey has in its official rhetoric joined the international chorus in stating that the Russian takeover is illegal, in practical terms, Ankara’s position is much more ambiguous. Indeed, it can be argued that Turkey has de facto accepted Crimea’s absorption by Russia. Turkey does not have a great stake in Crimea, but fears a possible escalation of tensions in the Black Sea region that lead to the military option being put on the agenda. If that were to happen, Turkey would find it impossible to maintain its current stance of balancing adherence to the Western alliance –in rhetorical terms – and its economic and energy dependence on Russia.

By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 5 of the Turkey Analyst)

Recent amendments to the Turkish Criminal Code have resulted in the provisional release of more than 30 of the defendants in the notorious Ergenekon court case. In the new political climate created by the power struggle between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the followers of the exiled Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, those released appear unlikely to have to return to prison. Nevertheless, even if they eventually all collapse, the repercussions of Ergenekon and the other politically motivated cases spawned by the Gülen Movement are likely to haunt Turkey for years to come.

By Jonathan Schanzer (vol. 7, no. 5 of the Turkey Analyst)

The corruption scandal in Turkey has pulled back a curtain, revealing the country’s ties to the shadowy world of terrorism finance. If left unchecked, this NATO ally risks being blacklisted by the international community for its illicit activities. The Obama Administration has expressed mild concern about the scandal and the government’s response, but it is disinclined to step into the middle of what appears to be a domestic spat between two political rivals.  This is the wrong time to step back, however. Troubling questions linger about Ankara’s relationship with Iranian gold traders, Hamas leaders, al Qaeda in Syria, and persons designated under the U.S. sanctions regime. Turkey’s open ties to these actors are a direct challenge to the U.S.-led sanctions infrastructure, and they raise troubling questions about Turkey’s commitment to its alliance with the West.