Turkey Vulnerable to Rising Russian Power in the Black Sea
By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 7 of the Turkey Analyst)
With the annexation of Crimea, Turkey faces a stronger and more emboldened Russian naval power in the Black Sea. A resurgent Russia may be tempted to exploit its temporary naval dominance to alter current Black Sea energy exploitation and transportation arrangements more in its favor and to the detriment of Turkey and its partners in the Caucasus. The politically motivated stoppage of Turkey’s National Warship Project’s production schedule has created a window of vulnerability in Turkey’s Black Sea naval defenses in the face of rapidly rising Russian naval power.
Turkey’s Internet Law: Another Chapter towards Absolute Censorship that Dooms EU Accession?
By Hendrik Müller (vol. 7, no. 6 of the Turkey Analyst)
Turkey recently promulgated a new Internet bill and swiftly used it to block access to the micro-blogging platform Twitter, and subsequently Youtube. In line with a longer history of fundamental rights violations, this step marks another chapter in Turkey’s recent path towards absolute censorship. In light of international and regional commitments, however, Turkey is increasingly at odds and may even risk forsaking its EU membership candidacy.
The Crimean Crisis: Turkey’s Priorities Differ from the Western Powers
By Kemal Kaya (vol. 7, no. 6 of the Turkey Analyst)
Turkey’s dependence on Russia in terms of its energy needs, as well as the other, important economic ties impede Turkey from rallying to a Western policy of isolation and stronger economic sanctions toward Russia. Although Turkey has in its official rhetoric joined the international chorus in stating that the Russian takeover is illegal, in practical terms, Ankara’s position is much more ambiguous. Indeed, it can be argued that Turkey has de facto accepted Crimea’s absorption by Russia. Turkey does not have a great stake in Crimea, but fears a possible escalation of tensions in the Black Sea region that lead to the military option being put on the agenda. If that were to happen, Turkey would find it impossible to maintain its current stance of balancing adherence to the Western alliance –in rhetorical terms – and its economic and energy dependence on Russia.
The Ergenekon Releases and Prospects for the Rule of Law in Turkey
By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 5 of the Turkey Analyst)
Recent amendments to the Turkish Criminal Code have resulted in the provisional release of more than 30 of the defendants in the notorious Ergenekon court case. In the new political climate created by the power struggle between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the followers of the exiled Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, those released appear unlikely to have to return to prison. Nevertheless, even if they eventually all collapse, the repercussions of Ergenekon and the other politically motivated cases spawned by the Gülen Movement are likely to haunt Turkey for years to come.
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Joint Center Publications
Op-ed Halil Karaveli "The Rise and Rise of the Turkish Right", The New York Times, April 8, 2019
Analysis Halil Karaveli "The Myth of Erdogan's Power", Foreign Policy, August 29, 2018
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, A Road to Understanding in Syria? The U.S. and Turkey, The American Interest, June 2018
Op-ed Halil Karaveli "Erdogan Wins Reelection", Foreign Affairs, June 25, 2018
Article Halil Karaveli "Will the Kurdish Question Secure Erdogan's Re-election?", Turkey Analyst, June 18, 2018
Research Article Svante E. Cornell "Erbakan, Kisakürek, and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey", Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018
Analysis Svante E. Cornell "The U.S. and Turkey: Past the Point of No Return?", The American Interest, February 1, 2018
Op-ed Svante E. Cornell "Erdogan's Turkey: the Role of a Little Known Islamic Poet", Breaking Defense, January 2, 2018
Research Article Halil Karaveli "Turkey's Authoritarian Legacy", Cairo Review of Global Affairs, January 2, 2018