Will Erdogan Always Prevail?
By Halil Karaveli (vol. 7, no. 10 of the Turkey Analyst)
The year after the Gezi Park protests has been the most difficult for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan since he became prime minister, but he has prevailed over his foes and challengers and he can confidently look forward to becoming Turkey’s first popularly elected president in the upcoming election in August. No one can challenge Erdoğan. However, that does not mean that Turkey is always going to bend to his will or that the country is going to be easy to govern even for an all-powerful President Erdoğan.
Trilateral Summit Signals Turkey's Increasing Role in South Caucasus Collective Security
By Micha’el Tanchum (vol. 7, no. 10 of the Turkey Analyst)
The first trilateral summit of the presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia was held in early May, representing a historic although not widely heralded advance in strategic cooperation. Ostensibly devoted to enhancing the three nations’ economic cooperation, the summit was conducted against the backdrop of the Russia's March 2014 annexation of the Crimea and the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine. The public emphasis placed on the Baku-Tblisi-Kars rail line by Turkish President Abdullah Gül, along with his Azerbaijani and Georgian counterparts, signaled that the three principals acknowledge a mutual strategic imperative for greater security cooperation.
Building on Division: Erdogan’s Presidential Ambitions
By Gareth Jenkins (vol. 7, no. 9 of the Turkey Analyst)
On May 9-11, 2014, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) held one of its regular retreats in the western Anatolian city of Afyon. Although no announcement has yet been made, the participants are believed to have informally endorsed Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as the party’s candidate in the presidential elections in August 2014.
Turkey’s Social Democrats Need to Rediscover the Working Class
By Halil Karaveli (vol. 7, no. 9 of the Turkey Analyst)
Many recognize that the Turkish social democrats, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), need to broaden their appeal. The CHP has long defined its mission as protecting the secular, bourgeois lifestyle. Lately, it has tried to appear more conservative and pro-Islamic. The party assumes that identity politics trumps class politics. However, the successes of the AKP show this assumption to be wrong. The CHP could emulate the example of the AKP and build a coalition of bourgeois and working class interests. A modern social democracy would speak both for bourgeois interests – freedom, individual liberties and a culture that values innovation – and cater to the interests of the working and poor classes. There is no reason to assume that social democracy can never rise again. But first, the CHP needs to rediscover the working class.
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